On a Referenda Bender

[steepholm]

I wonder what position the SNP will take regarding the forthcoming EU referendum? They're a pro-EU party, so can hardly be seen campaigning to leave; and yet, if the UK votes to leave it will give them their best shot in the foreseeable future to demand a second independence referendum, which they will almost certainly win on a Scotland-stays-in-the-EU slate.

It's an interesting dilemma for them; but certainly a lot more pleasant than the corollary dilemma faced by the rest of us, which is that of how to live in a rump UK with no EU, no human rights and a permanent Tory majority, being governed by wankers for the benefit of bankers. But such is apparently the earnest wish of many.

Comments

[steepholm.livejournal.com]

My first answer got swallowed, but in short - yes, you're right of course that it's not necessarily a permanent Tory majority - though it will be a pretty stubborn one with the boundary changes they're proposing, especially if the Left vote is split. (In a post-EU world I imagine UKIP will be less relevant and dwindle to negligible proportions, if they don't do that before.)

The SNP won't be as nakedly cynical as the Communists, but I'd love to know how they're going to play it.

On the other hand, Cameron may be planning to use the prospect of a post-EU referendum break-up of the UK as a tool with which to keep his own side in line, and voting to stay in. But having spent much of the recent campaign vilifying the Scots as nasty foreigners that tool may turn out to have two edges.

Otherwise, total agreement here.

[kalimac.livejournal.com]

The SNP could say, "If the UK votes to leave the EU, we're having another vote on leaving the UK," uttering it more as a threat but leaving it up to those who want Scotland to leave to make it happen. But by the demographic nature of things, those people would be less Scots who want independence than English who want Scotland to go. On the other hand, as you point out, by having the referendum at all Cameron is just encouraging UKIPism. On the other other hand, Thursday's election shows that, though UKIP is the third largest party, it's not that big.