Black Death Blues

[steepholm]

For years, I heard and saw quoted the statistic that the Black Death had wiped out one third of the population of Europe. I don't know how that figure was arrived at, but had no particular reason to doubt it.

Now, twice within the last month I've heard it said (with confidence and in a plonking "Oceania has always been at war with Eurasia" tone) that the Black Death killed half the people in Europe.

Does anyone know when and why this change occured? Do they now think more people died, or that the population was less than previously believed - or both?

Comments

[gillo]

My understanding is that they don't really know. The lowest I've seen put forward is a quarter, the highest, half. Presumably it's somewhere in between, varying hugely from one place to another.

[calimac.livejournal.com]

I've always heard a third, but with the understanding that that's extremely approximate.

[diceytillerman.livejournal.com]

All I know is, my life has been a lot more lively since gnomicutterance gave me this a number of years ago.

[steepholm.livejournal.com]

Cool!

[cmcmck.livejournal.com]

Truth is that 'historical verities' don't exist and views change over time (I'm a Civil War historian as you know and this is true to the maximum in my field- what I learned as an undergrad- classical Marxist stuff as inflected via the likes of Christopher Hill et al) is now totally at a discount.

Truth is that the figure is unknowable. Most contemprorary historians hedge their bets and state 'between a quarter and a half', but that's a typical historian's response (and I should know! :o)

Whatever the truth, the death toll was mind boggling and put development in Europe back by a couple of generations at least.

[wolfinthewood.livejournal.com]

I suspect that Wikipedia may be the source. The current page on the Black Death gives a figure of 30%-60%. (Lot of wriggle room there.) It links to this 2003 book: 'A pest in the land: new world epidemics in a global perspective', by Suzanne Austin Alchon. This note and link was added to the Wikipedia article in an edit on 9 January 2011. (The figure of 30%-60% was already in the article, but unsourced.) The references supplied in Alchon's book are David Herlihy, The Black Death and the Transformation of the West, Harvard University Press, 1997, p. 17 and a book or article by Paul Slack.

[steepholm.livejournal.com]

Thank you for that. I wouldn't be at all surprised if you're right. At any rate, it wouldn't be the first dubious Wiki-fuelled meme I'd come across lately.